Volume: 14  Number: 2  Page: 172–191

Tourism/Leisure Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecasts for 2050: Factors for Change in France

Ghislain Dubois1 and Jean Paul Ceron2 1Tourisme, Transports, Territoires Environnement Conseil (TEC), Marseille, France and 2Centre de recherche interdisciplinaire sur le droit de l’environnement, de l’aménagement et de l’urbanisme (CRIDEAU- Université de Limoges), Limoges, France

This paper deals with the prediction of French tourism/leisure mobility demands in 2050, and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis is based on a model of household tourism/leisure mobility patterns based on four modes of transport. A sensitivity analysis quantifies possible changes in greenhouse gas emissions according to hypotheses related to demographics, economic situations, the international security context, transport technology and policy, the tourism market, lifestyles and cultural change. The results show the high sensitivity of the model to economic parameters, and that French tourism travel still has considerable growth potential. Any technological improvements could be offset by low investment in transport infrastructure and by permissive ‘transport pricing’. ‘Business as usual’ trends imply that French tourism/ leisure GHG emissions could increase by 90% by 2050, and passenger-kilometres by 200%. Very long distance trips and air transport are identified as major problems, caused by a small group of frequent travellers.

Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions, modelling, scenario analysis, tourism sustainability, transport

© 2006 G. Dubois & J.P. Ceron

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