Evaluation and Research in Education
Editor: Professor Keith Morrison, Inter-University Institute of Macau
Associate Editor: Professor Stephen Gorard, University of York
Statistical Adviser: Professor Colin Baker, University of Wales Bangor
Reviews Editor: Dr. Emma Smith, University of York
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Volume: 13 Number: 3 Page: 132–143
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Planning Ahead in a 'Market' for Schools: Predicting Patterns of School Choice
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Stephen Gorard
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This paper uses responses from a large-scale survey of school choice in South Wales to predict the type of school that respondents will choose, based upon their personal characteristics and the choice criteria
that they report using. The resulting models are extremely accurate, around 90% successful in predicting which of three types of school will be chosen. Although the data used has limitations, the models
are published as exemplars of the accuracy that is possible. In addition, the division of what are often the rather nebulous findings from school choice research into specific criteria for the choice of
each school-type could give practical preliminary help to those concerned with shaping their schools policy, as well as providing insights into the process of choice for different types of families.
© Multilingual Matters 1999
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